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Editorial |
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January 22, 2007 • Volume 27, Number 4 Copyright 2007 by TeleSpan Publishing Corp. All rights reserved. “I can see for miles and miles”*
I just looked at the calendar and realized that TeleSpan is now over a quarter of a century old I decided this year to re-name myself “The Great Carnak†” vs. “The Crystal Bald.” As I’ve done in past Predictions issues, let me start out by telling you what my predictions are As I’ve explained in past Predictions issues, where I predict that a company will be successful, Okay, enough. Let’s go! TeleSpan’s Prediction #1: Media server companies drive into the Enterprise by offering Unified I spent quite a bit of time last year looking at all of the offerings from the new media server companies, giving you a table in Electronic TeleSpan last October comparing more than a dozen I totally agree that we’re going to see a big land rush towards the enterprise, but am convinced that while the sales pitches and even the RFPs out there will talk loudly about UC, the majority As you know, we’ll be talking about this at our Second Annual Future of Conferencing TeleSpan’s Prediction #2: Podcasts become staple offering from CSPs by ’09. Do you know anyone who doesn’t have an Apple iPod? According to Wikipedia, Apple Inc. Don’t think people are already listening to podcasts? According to Pew (November 20, 2006), I think that any CSP that doesn’t add podcasting as a feature by ’09 will be, oh, out of business! TeleSpan’s Prediction #3: VoIP ports become at least 40-50% of sales to CSPs by end of 2008. Actually, this one is “almost famous” already. According to the data I collected from TeleSpan’s panel of audio bridge makers in 2005, VoIP ports already represented 27% of all ports sold to This one is a slam dunk! TeleSpan’s Prediction #4: Compunetix takes back lead in PSTN ports sales to CSPs, taking share away from To be blunt, Avaya has shifted its focus away from the conference service provider CSP Soooooooooooo, Compunetix is gaining market share, and I think it will be the market leader in the CSP space this year. See Electronic TeleSpan, January 30, 2006, pp. 1-3 for a story on the moves by Avaya and Polycom. TeleSpan’s Prediction #5: Video calls become 5%-10% of calls on Mother’s Day by 2010. I remember when phone calls on Mother ’s Day would nearly bring the PSTN to its wireline Increasingly, though, I’ve been hearing from friends that their kids call them at home on many days using a Webcam. In fact, I’m sure you’ve noticed that I’ve been reporting on the increased use of Webcams for family calls in the newsletter, and that each Mother ’s Day I do a feature First of all, some sources say that, indeed, more phone calls are made on Mother ’s Day in the USA than on any other day in any other country. I tried to get one of the large US-based phone companies to confirm this, but didn’t get a call back … guess I should have used my Webcam. Then, according to iBasis, Inc., a VoIP company, its phone traffic over the Internet during the Christmas and New Years holidays is growing. The company issued a statement saying, “iBasis terminated 53.6 million minutes of Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) traffic during Christmas Day, a 30 percent increase over 2005, and 52.9 million minutes on New Years Day, up 38 percent from 2006.” Sure, never heard of these guys, and their statistics are for Christmas and New Years, and 53.6 million minutes is the chump change that comes out of payphones. But, with about 100 million Webcams out there in people’s hands, and Skype video for the PC, and for the Mac, and iSight video from Apple, I’m convinced that folks who are making free VoIP calls to relatives today are going to make IP video calls to their moms on Mother ’s Day. Further, I’m convinced those video calls will make up at least 5% to 10% of calls that day by 2010. Haven’t figured out how I’m going to prove this one, but I guess I’ll just ask Skype about it in a few years. TeleSpan’s Prediction #6: Telepresence fails to come ashore, but raises all the boats, driving group video sales up 25% year over year in 2007. As you know, when Cisco announced its TelePresence systems, I went on record with a When I called around to the various videoconferencing vendors who compete with Cisco and “Elliot, we’re shaking all over!,” they said. Then, before I could reply, they said, “Our phones are ringing off the hook from customers we’ve been trying to sell high-end video to, who are now saying, we want them!” “Them” were not telepresence systems, but high-end videoconferencing group systems. It seems that Cisco got everyone’s attention, but the price tag of $260,000 to $290,000 a site drove buyers to Polycom, Tandberg, LifeSize, and others, and I think will loft those companies’ unit You think 25% is low? Well, group video sales have been relatively flat for the past couple of years, growing less than So 25% will be a very, very nice reward for the existing group video supplers, thanks to the TeleSpan’s Prediction #7: LifeSize becomes the 4th largest provider of group video by ’09. Based on data I’m getting from insiders, LifeSize has a run rate of at least 500 units a quarter now. I’d expect that to grow dramatically through 2007, and then grow again in 2008. For TeleSpan’s Prediction #8: Connex International is bought for its Operator-Handled/Event Business or disappears after a 25-year run! Ah, Connex International. Talk about a bedrock of the conferencing industry, founded by the late Susan Pereyra first as The Darome Connection, then renamed and re-launched in 1982 Connex’s forte? Operator-handled calls. Therein is the problem, and the opportunity, all on the same menu. Since op-handled calls are only about 4% of calls today, it’s not a real attractive market to go after. The large CSPs don’t want to pay operators to manage these calls or invest their capex budget into operator equipment. Yet, they want to cash in on such calls, so they go Is Connex in trouble? I doubt it.
Is Connex a great find? Heck, yes!
TeleSpan’s Prediction #9: Tandberg or Cisco buy LifeSize by end of 2008. Didn’t I just mention LifeSize? Didn’t I say that it would grow and grow and … if it does, then as All you longtime readers of TeleSpan know the folks at LifeSize as the same ones who were at VTEL, then split off to become ViaVideo, positioned themselves to be “very popular” and got bought by Brian Hinman when he was running Polycom. Hey, the way I see it, this is simply their second act … build it, grow it, sell it. I don’t see TeleSpan’s Prediction #10: AmigoLatino becomes dominant video carrier to Latin America by ’09. Some of you are saying “AmigoWho?” Well, let me fill you in. AmigoLatino is the brainchild of One day, Gabriel began thinking of home…actually, I’m sure he did that every day, every hour. Don’t think it’s much of a market? Think again. According to Associated Press, Latino immigrants to the United States sent $45 billion home in Don’t think there’s money down there already to build more business? Latin America has a population of 548.5 million, and has a GDP of $2.26 trillion (based on current exchange rates). The purchasing power of this population is put at $4.5 trillion. I sat down with Gabriel over lunch a couple of months ago, and he served up a business plan so delicious that I had to stop eating what was already on my plate. I can’t reveal what he told me, I say that by 2009, he will manage more video and other data traffic to and from Latin America than any carrier-based videoconferencing service will. Stay tuned. Predictions from 2006: How’d we do? Okay, let’s find out how the Great Carnak (a.k.a. “The Crystal Bald”) did last year in his predictions. TeleSpan’s Prediction #1
Spot on! Well, things ground to a halt for Forgent Networks last July, when United States District Judge Poor Forgent. When the judge announced his ruling, Forgent then settled with the three or four dozen defendants for some pocket change ($8.134 million). That means that since April 2002, Forgent collected $122.4 million, and netted $59.3 million of it. So while Forgent “lost,” its bank account didn’t. See Electronic TeleSpan, July 26, 2004 for a story on the countersuit over the 672 patent. See ET, TeleSpan’s Prediction #2:
My inside information is that indeed InterCall has lost the majority of the AT&T contract, but For an explanation of the AT&T contract with InterCall, I suggest re-reading Electronic TeleSpan, TeleSpan’s Prediction #3:
This one wasn’t easy to prove. A lot of the hosted and in-house conferencing growth came from Latitude MeetingPlace servers, which are now sold by Cisco. When Latitude was public, it put its numbers out, and at the Then you look at IBM, which last year pulled its minutes away from Premiere and put them on Nine percent (9%) plus three percent (3%) is 12% of the global market. That 12% doesn’t include Oracle (it has about a third of a percent of the market) or Boeing, I’ll take thumbs up on this one, folks! Disagree with me? Come to TeleSpan’s Future of Conferencing Workshop March 26 and 27 in TeleSpan’s Prediction #4:
During the Predictions broadcast I said that I was right, after using reliable sources. After the broadcast, Polycom called me and read me the company’s HR data, telling me exactly how For now, I’ll take a thumbs down on this one, but I have to say, I believe I am still correct. Maybe not for 2006, but certainly soon. For my story on the DSTMedia acquisition, see ET, August 29, 2005, pp. 3-4. TeleSpan’s Prediction #5:
Well, when Microsoft brings out its full Vista later this year, you will be able to launch But, as predicted, Microsoft will be offering conference calls via VoIP, so I’ll take a thumbs up on this one too. TeleSpan’s Prediction #6:
Indeed! Tandberg saw its market share of TeleSpan’s Big Six Group Videoconferencing systems fall from Should be interesting to see what its share is for Q4-06. For now, my thumb is up! TeleSpan’s Prediction #7:
Well, Premiere Global, one of the largest CSPs on the planet, signed a contract with Adobe for I have been told by a number of other CSPs that they have been “negotiating” with Microsoft, since Microsoft snuck in that 94% price cut and went around the CSPs. While no one is willing Then, as I pointed out last year, both Cisco and Avaya have contracts with Adobe for Breeze Those three are certainly not friendly with Microsoft! In addition to Premiere Global, Avaya and Cisco, Adobe announced that it has won over MeetingOne, which is a not-so-quiet conferencing startup by France Telecom/Orange, which of course is a major CSP in Europe. With France Telecom’s subsidiary joining Premiere Global Conferencing, I’d say I got two major TeleSpan’s Prediction #8:
Well, LifeSize did attain sales of about 500 units a quarter, but failed to make a dent in Polycom’s sales. As I said above when I wrote about my predictions for 2007, I think that LifeSize will grow quickly, but it didn’t grow fast enough to meet my prediction. So, thumbs down on this one. TeleSpan’s Prediction #9:
Well, let’s see: Skype is offering SkypeOut for calls within North America for $29.95 a year TeleSpan’s Prediction #10:
They did it! Global Crossing Conferencing returned to the number-five spot in the global conference call market! This after its parent took a nosedive and declared bankruptcy. Well, in Global is now number five in TeleSpan’s Top Eight Leading Global Conference Call Services. Kudos! Special thanks to ACT I want to thank ACT Teleconferencing for all their help and their excellent support on the broadcast of the Predictions event. It went on, as always, without a hitch. Thanks to Gene Warren, CEO, who is making things really work there, as well as to his superb team, including And last but not least, J D Vaughn, who co-hosted the event with me, co-moderated it, and added incredible color and intellectual property. You are the sparkle in the Great Carnak’s all- seeing eye. * ”I Can See for Miles,” a #9 hit for The Who, on October 14, 1967, according to Joel Whitburn’s Top † With apologies to the great Johnny Carson, wherever he may be. |
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